IHME Creates COVID-19 Projection Tool

The Institution for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research center at the University of Washington that focuses on providing “rigorous and comparable measurement of the world’s most important health problems.” In the midst of the current COVID-19 pandemic, IHME has created several research resources related to the illness.

COVID-19 US State-by-State Projections

One of the resources that can be found takes the United States as a whole, and each state individually, to predict hospital resource use, deaths per day, and total deaths projected.

At the time of the writing of this article (subject to change as the input into the calculator inevitably changes), the researchers at IHME believes that the United States will reach its peak resource use on April 14, 2020. On that date, there will be a need for 232,298 beds and will have a bed shortage of 49,292 beds. On that date, there will be a need for 34,754 ICU beds and will have an ICU bed shortage of 14,601 beds. That same day, there will be a need for 18,767 invasive ventilators.

IHME also predicts that the peak count of daily deaths will take place on April 14, 2020, with 2,341 COVID-19 deaths that day throughout the United States. According to the projection, deaths will taper off at that point and continue to taper down throughout the summer months.

IHME concludes the data projections for the United States by projecting a total of 81,114 COVID-19 deaths through August 4, 2020. The analysis, using data from governments, hospitals, and other sources, predicts that the number of U.S. deaths could vary widely, ranging from as low as around 38,000 to as high as around 162,000. The wide variance is due, at least in part, to disparate rates of the spread of the virus in different regions, which experts are still struggling to explain, said Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, who led the study.

While the number of hospitalized patients is expected to peak nationally around April 14, 2020, the peak may come later in some states. Murray also noted that the expected lengthy duration of the virus may require social distancing for longer than initially expected but the country may be able to relax the restrictions if it can more effectively test and quarantine those who are sick.

Select States

According to the projections and studies, the virus is slowly spreading throughout California, which means that the peak cases in that state may come later in April, and that therefore, the social distancing measures will be extended in the state for a longer period of time.

Louisiana and Georgia, meanwhile, are expected to continue to see high rates of contagion and may see a high burden placed on their local healthcare systems.

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