Why does drug development require so much serendipity? Why do drugs take so long to develop? Why is there are there so many troubles with the development pipelines of so many companies. To help answer some of these questions David Shaywitz, MD and Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote in an editorial in the Financial Times that Drug research needs serendipity.
Drug development takes a lot of hard work (“Science is hard spreadsheets are easy”) along with a certain amount of serendipity.
Serendipity is the effect by which one accidentally discovers something fortunate, especially while looking for something else entirely.
.The writers rightly focus that too much reliance on spreadsheets vs. better understanding of the mechanism of disease, has lead to many potential compounds being shelved.
Pharmaceutical companies are also waking up to the fact that perhaps they shouldn’t be doing everything and focus on their core competencies which may lay in sales, marketing, re-imbursement and regulatory compliance.
“If pharma companies want to stay in the game, their leaders will need to resist the false comfort of revenue predictions and valuation spreadsheets, and instead resolve to look uncertainty in the face, acknowledge its presence and embrace the opportunity it represents.
As policy makers consider new laws to restrict marketing of branded pharmaceuticals there needs to be some consideration of the complexity of the market place, and the complexity and art of developing new compounds.
I think we would all agree that this industry could use a little serendipity.