Just before the seven hour political show last week—the Health Care Summit—ended with no progress or changes in the current status of health care reform, several Washington insiders did the math on the prospects for passage of the health care bill using the process known as reconciliation. The Wall Street Journal and New York Times all wonder were the numbers will come from.
Some Democratic leaders such as Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Whip Clyburn believe the House will pass the president’s health bill. Others however, such as White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, “don’t know” if the bill will pass.
For instance, the original House bill last November passed 220-215, a very small margin of victory. By the end of this month, Democrats will have 3 vacancies in the House—all seats of Members who were among Democrats’ original 220 yes votes. This will bring the total vote down to 217.
In addition, the pro-life House Democrats know, the Senate’s language fails to include the House’s pro-life protections and, as a result, is opposed by the U.S. Conference of Catholic Bishops and National Right to Life Committee. Mr. Cantor noted that at least 12 Members in the House who voted yes in November could now vote no, bringing the total vote down to 205.
Also for consideration, six House Democrats from Indiana, North Dakota, and West Virginia could change from a yes to a no if their Democrat senator does so first—and based on their difficult elections this November, they may even switch if their senator doesn’t, bringing the total down to 200.
Speaker Pelosi may gain back some votes from retiring members, bringing the total back up to 203, but Mr. Cantor noted that retiring member votes are no guarantee.
Although the House Democrats have 255 Members, “in the months since Harry Reid passed the Senate bill, House Democrats have repeatedly stated they could not pass it.”
With regards to reconciliation, in the Senate, Harry Reid may have an easier time since he only needs to convince 50 Democrats to support the president’s health care reform bill.
While the future remains uncertain for health care reform, President Obama gave Republicans and Democrats a month to try and work out their disagreements. If the health care summit was an example of how those issues will be resolved, Democrats may have to try and use reconciliation at the risk of losing even more public support.