Earlier this year, Numerof & Associates wrote the sixth annual State of Population Health Survey report, providing a comprehensive look at the progress of the healthcare industry in integrating population health principles into routine operations. The data collected to create the report was collected online between September 2020 and February 2021 and roughly 300 healthcare executives responded. The executives who responded represent a wide range of delivery organizations: standalone facilities, small systems and IDNs, for-profit institutions, non-profit institutions, government institutions, academic and community facilities.
Out of all the responses, roughly 99% reported that they expect their organization to have some revenue in models with upside gain and/or downside risk in two years, though their expectations have consistently fallen short of reality in years’ past.
Additionally, when respondents were asked about whether they think the COVID-19 pandemic will accelerate at-risk contracting, there was no clear-cut answer: 39% agreed, 31% disagreed, and 30% were neutral. Similarly, when responders were asked whether capitated models would be more attractive as a result of the pandemic, 36% agreed, 33% disagreed, and 31% were neutral.
A large percentage of respondents – 93% – rated population health as between “moderately” and “critically” important to their future success with the main reason being better control of clinical costs, quality, and outcomes. However, only 12% of respondents said that the current fee-for-service model won’t last forever and that idea is a primary driver in their organization’s pursuit of population health.
Numerof concluded that despite the financial ramifications COVID-19 had on hospitals, few seem to have taken away any lessons about mitigating business risk inherent in fee-for-service models.
“Progress toward improving population health is still moving at a frustratingly glacial pace,” said Rita Numerof, PhD, President of Numerof & Associates. “Like many, we hoped that this year’s survey would show some progress toward value-based practice integration, yet we found many executives still failing to see the shortcomings of the fee-for-service status quo. This unwillingness to see and address these now obvious, fundamental issues is exactly why government bailouts cannot continue – especially without any requirement to prevent this from happening again in the next pandemic!”
“It’s long been known that the most expensive piece of equipment in the hospital is the physician’s pen,” said Michael Abrams, managing partner of Numerof & Associates. “Yet, in our sixth annual survey, 62% of respondents rated their organization’s ability to manage variation in cost at the physician level as “average” or “worse than average”. If executives have so little insight into the cost differences between physicians, how can they possibly expect to control them?”